California Solar’s Self-Sufficiency

The California Energy Commission’s New Solar Homes Partnership program is paying off, according to its new case study. WIth over 14,000 solar systems installed mostly in Southern California across varying income levels, NSHP is “well on the way” to “establishing a self-sufficient solar industry” in the Golden State.

They key findings of the CEC’s case study (PDF) are illuminating, especially for other states looking to catch up to scorching California’s solar momentum. Market penetration of solar installations reached 27 percent (and rising) of new single-family homes, which greatly outperformed multifamily homes, that were issued permits in 2012. Although the program primarily served subdivisions, NSHP’s rebate design has also helped lower-income residents, whose affordable and multifamily housing received “higher average rebates per watt of solar capacity,” CEC’s case study explained.

And while leasing solar systems has become more common in California, direct purchases remained the norm while broader power-purchase agreements remained “uncommon.” The result is the creation of more than 45 MW of installed residential solar capacity, leaving NSHP, which began in 2007, about 300 megawatts shy of its 10-year goal of 360 megawatts.

Crunching those numbers, it becomes clear that while the NSHP is heating up, there remains much rooftop to solarize before the CEC can achieve its long-term objective of creating a self-sustaining solar market in California. “At this time, it is too early to draw final conclusions about the success of the program because it is only partially completed,” cautioned the report, led by Clean Energy States Alliance’s Samantha Donalds.

One sticking point is that NSHP, like the state itself, is overweight with production homes, which accounted for 81 percent of its total installations. California’s largest housing production downturn from 2009 to 2011, prodded by the Great Recession, stalled NSHP’s solar momentum, but skyrocketed once the market for building subdivisions accelerated shortly thereafter. The good news is that NSHP’s subdivision solarization accelerated in time, while installations at custom homes, affordable housing and common area projects respectively languished at 12, 6 and 1 percent.

The bad news? If another housing downturn strikes between now and 2017, when NSHP hopes to achieve its goal of 360 megawatt installed, then so could the CEC’s momentum. But solar has seemed to turn the corner since the dog days of 2007, when the concept of going photovoltaic was much less popular, and much more expensive, than it is today. If recent accelerations in solar installations continue, and there is little reason to believe they will not, NSHP may perhaps race to its lofty finish line ahead of schedule.

This article appeared at Solar Energy